Week 32: Three Headwinds Ease: Markets Break to New Highs

AI earnings credibility, falling oil prices and a soft jobs report that took rate hikes off the table combined to propel the S&P 500 to record highs: its best weekly gain since April.

6 min read

Weekly Summary

Week 32 (3–7 August) was the week markets had been waiting for. Three concerns that had kept equities range-bound for most of the summer (doubts about the sustainability of AI spending, elevated oil prices driven by Middle East tensions, and the risk of further Federal Reserve tightening) all eased simultaneously. The result was a decisive breakout: the S&P 500 gained 3.6% on the week, its best weekly performance since April, and closed at a new all-time high of 7,757.64. The Nasdaq surged 5.2%, led by a sharp recovery in semiconductor stocks, while the Dow Jones added nearly 3%.

For the Rivativ model portfolios, it was the strongest week YTD. The combined portfolio gained +$11,417.74 (+2.82%) impressive in absolute terms, and a strong result in the context of a week where the S&P 500 itself was up 3.58%. Three of four portfolios essentially matched or outperformed the index outright; the fourth had a difficult week against the sharp directional rally.

This post is for subscribers only


Related content

 

Week 34: Bond Yields Steal the Show as Markets Pull Back

Rising long-term Treasury yields, a Walmart-shaped consumer warning, and surging Bitcoin combined for a volatile week, but the combined portfolio again beat a falling market.

Week 33: Inflation Cools, Markets Extend Their Run

A quiet week by recent standards delivered exactly what markets needed: benign CPI and PPI data, no Fed surprises, and a third consecutive weekly gain for the S&P 500.

Week 31: Fed Holds, Microsoft Surges, Markets Recover

A volatile week of central bank signals, hawkish bond moves and swinging tech earnings resolved in a positive weekly close and three of four portfolios beat the S&P 500.

Week 30: Tech Earnings Disappoint, Oil Surges: Markets Sell Off Again

Alphabet and Tesla missed the mark, Brent briefly crossed $100, and equity markets fell for a second consecutive week: yet the combined portfolio ended the week virtually flat.

Week 29: Earnings Season Lifts Off & Tech Stumbles

A quieter macro backdrop gave way to late-week selling in technology — but strong earnings from banks and a resilient vol structure kept three portfolios close to the index while one stood apart.