Week 41: Bond Yields Flare Again, Hawkish Minutes Fade; Markets Rally into Earnings

Weekly Summary

Week 41 (5–9 October) was another week defined by the tug of war between rising Treasury yields and a technology-driven equity market that largely refused to follow bonds lower. The three major drivers were the release of the September FOMC minutes on Wednesday, a pair of simultaneous supply shocks in the oil market from Hurricane Isaias and ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions, and a sharp rotation in equity markets away from technology and semiconductors toward defensive sectors and energy. By Friday's close, the damage was less than the intraweek swings suggested: the S&P 500 gained approximately 1.15% on the week, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow added 0.93%. The Russell 2000 was the week's clear laggard, falling 0.91%, while the Nasdaq-100 eked out only a 0.24% gain as a semiconductor selloff mid-week offset Monday's record-setting strength.

For the Rivativ model portfolios, it was a solid and quiet week by recent standards. All four portfolios contributed positively. Combined weekly result: +1.13%, versus SPX +1.15%. October month-to-date: combined +2.04% versus SPX +2.09% — tracking the index closely through the first seven trading days of the month.