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Week 36 (31 August – 4 September) was a week of reversals. Three separate macro catalysts (a renewed US-Iran military exchange on Monday, a dovish signal from Fed Governor Waller on Thursday, and a strongly positive August payrolls report on Friday) each moved markets in a different direction, leaving the S&P 500 almost exactly where it started. The index gained just 0.09% on the week, closing Friday at 7,718.60. The Nasdaq added 0.4% and the Dow gave back 0.3%. Energy was by far the best-performing sector (+2.2%), while the week's dominant macro theme — the September rate decision — kept investors cautious across the rest of the market.
For the Rivativ model portfolios, the week produced a marginal combined loss of -$80.80 (-0.02%) against an SPX that gained just +0.09% — effectively a flat-for-flat result against a flat market. Three of four portfolios finished the week in positive territory; the Predictive Gamma Strategy had a difficult week that erased its contribution. September month-to-date: combined +0.25% versus SPX +0.42%.
With the October rate hike all but taken off the table, markets split sharply along value and growth lines: the Russell 2000 surged 2%, energy hit record highs, and Brent crude closed above $116, while a $16 billion tax charge sent Meta tumbling and Communication Services led the week's losses. →
A hotter-than-expected September CPI reignited October rate-hike fears, while an AI revenue disappointment triggered an eight-session semiconductor losing streak — but the Dow powered to an all-time high and oil's surge toward $100 made energy the week's standout sector. →
A hawkish set of FOMC minutes sent the 10-year briefly to a 24-year high before a strong Treasury auction and Trump's diplomatic overtures to Iran sent yields back down and equities higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting solid weekly gains on the doorstep of earnings season. →
A soft August PCE print and a sharply disappointing jobs report sent rate hike odds collapsing from 64% to 17%, rescuing equities from an otherwise bruising week shaped by geopolitical flare-ups and crumbling consumer sentiment. →
Treasuries hit 19-year highs as October rate hike odds climbed toward 70%, yet equities powered through the pressure, led by Meta's AI showcase and a broad technology rally. →
