We've sent a verification link to your email address. Click the link to confirm your account.
Week 43 (19–23 October) was primarily defined by rotation. October FOMC rate hike odds collapsed from last week's 43.7% to approximately 8% by Thursday's close: driven by stronger-than-expected PMI data and a reassessment of the CPI shock's durability. The resulting repricing unleashed a sharp divergence: the Russell 2000 surged 2.00% as rate-sensitive small caps came back to life, the Dow added 0.42%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite fell approximately 0.71% as technology and communication services gave back ground.
Meta's Q3 earnings were the week's largest equity event: revenue of $64.6 billion beat expectations, but a $16 billion non-cash tax charge under the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" pushed GAAP EPS to $3.83 against a $6.67 consensus, sending the stock down more than 7%. TSMC delivered the opposite story: revenue up 41% in US-dollar terms, profit up 68.7%, and CEO C.C. Wei calling AI chip demand "extremely robust." Oil extended its advance: Brent settled at $116.72 Friday (+6.24% WTD) and WTI at $103.27 as Strait of Hormuz disruption and Russian refinery damage deepened supply fears. Gold fell nearly 4% on the week (briefly touching a sub-$4,000 intraday low for the first time since July) as the safe-haven bid unwound with rate-hike fears. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 8.9 basis points to 5.001%, breaking below the 5% threshold for the first time since the post-CPI spike.
For the Rivativ model portfolios, a quiet and broadly constructive week. Predictive Gamma was the standout. Combined weekly result: +0.04%, versus SPX -0.47%. October month-to-date: combined +0.18%, versus SPX -0.36%.
A hotter-than-expected September CPI reignited October rate-hike fears, while an AI revenue disappointment triggered an eight-session semiconductor losing streak — but the Dow powered to an all-time high and oil's surge toward $100 made energy the week's standout sector. →
A hawkish set of FOMC minutes sent the 10-year briefly to a 24-year high before a strong Treasury auction and Trump's diplomatic overtures to Iran sent yields back down and equities higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting solid weekly gains on the doorstep of earnings season. →
A soft August PCE print and a sharply disappointing jobs report sent rate hike odds collapsing from 64% to 17%, rescuing equities from an otherwise bruising week shaped by geopolitical flare-ups and crumbling consumer sentiment. →
Treasuries hit 19-year highs as October rate hike odds climbed toward 70%, yet equities powered through the pressure, led by Meta's AI showcase and a broad technology rally. →
A four-day trading week packed four weeks of drama: WTI crossed $100 for the first time in years, August CPI kept the pressure on, and the S&P 500 fell for a fourth consecutive session before Friday's relief rally closed the week on a calmer note. →
