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This week marked a stark contrast to the previous fortnight's spike in volatility. After last week's sharp selloff in equities and the VIX surge to 21.51, markets found their footing early in the week. The S&P 500 recovered modestly, whilst the Nasdaq's rebound proved more decisive. More telling than raw index performance was the shift in the volatility regime: the VIX compressed from 21.51 to 17.68 over five trading days — a 15% decline that reflects a genuine risk-off reversal rather than a mere positioning unwind.
With the October rate hike all but taken off the table, markets split sharply along value and growth lines: the Russell 2000 surged 2%, energy hit record highs, and Brent crude closed above $116, while a $16 billion tax charge sent Meta tumbling and Communication Services led the week's losses. →
A hotter-than-expected September CPI reignited October rate-hike fears, while an AI revenue disappointment triggered an eight-session semiconductor losing streak — but the Dow powered to an all-time high and oil's surge toward $100 made energy the week's standout sector. →
A hawkish set of FOMC minutes sent the 10-year briefly to a 24-year high before a strong Treasury auction and Trump's diplomatic overtures to Iran sent yields back down and equities higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting solid weekly gains on the doorstep of earnings season. →
A soft August PCE print and a sharply disappointing jobs report sent rate hike odds collapsing from 64% to 17%, rescuing equities from an otherwise bruising week shaped by geopolitical flare-ups and crumbling consumer sentiment. →
Treasuries hit 19-year highs as October rate hike odds climbed toward 70%, yet equities powered through the pressure, led by Meta's AI showcase and a broad technology rally. →
