Week 35: Nvidia Delivers, Warsh Warns

Weekly Summary

Week 35 (24–28 August) delivered the two events markets had been waiting for all month: Nvidia's earnings and Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote as Federal Reserve Chair. Both arrived with force. Nvidia's fiscal Q2 results were a blowout: revenue more than doubled YoY, guidance for fiscal 2028 came in at 70% growth against analyst expectations of 46%, and CEO Jensen Huang declared that AI has reached its "inflection point." The report added significant momentum to the technology sector and lifted the broader market into Thursday's close.

Then came Friday. Warsh's speech pushed September rate hike probability from roughly 35% before he spoke to around 55–60% afterward: the most hawkish repricing of Fed expectations since the July FOMC. Gold fell nearly 3%, silver dropped 4%, Bitcoin lost more than 3%, and Treasury short-end yields spiked. Stocks ended Friday modestly in the red. Despite the Friday reversal, the S&P 500 managed a positive week overall, gaining 0.49%, while the Nasdaq added 0.9% and the Dow climbed 0.5%, its first winning week in three. The SPX closed August at 7,711.76, ending the month essentially flat from its 31 July starting point.

For the Rivativ model portfolios, the week was strong. All four portfolios gained, and the combined portfolio outperformed the index. Combined weekly result: +$3,804.45 (+0.92%), versus SPX +0.49%. August month-to-date: combined +2.93% versus SPX +2.96%, virtually neck-and-neck with the index across a month that included record highs, two equity sell-offs, a bond market crisis, and a dramatic vol spike.