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Week 34 (17–21 August) was centered on an issue that had been brewing for a while: the relentless rise in long-term US Treasury yields. The 30-year bond yield touched new 19-year highs above 5.33%, driving a broad equity sell-off through most of the week before a partial recovery on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 1.43% on the week, closing at 7,674.37, and is now -1.4% below its all-time high set just the week before. The Dow and Nasdaq each also posted weekly losses. What made the move in yields particularly striking was its context: inflation data has been cooling, September rate hike expectations have been falling, and yet long-term bond yields pushed higher anyway — a disconnect that caught policymakers' attention and prompted emergency action from the US Treasury mid-week.
For the Rivativ model portfolios, the week was challenging for the theta-positive strategies, which absorbed mark-to-market pressure from the equity sell-off. The Predictive Gamma Strategy, however, delivered a positive result in a down week. Combined weekly result: -$5,053.41 (-1.21%), versus SPX -1.43% — outperforming the index by 22 basis points.
A hotter-than-expected September CPI reignited October rate-hike fears, while an AI revenue disappointment triggered an eight-session semiconductor losing streak — but the Dow powered to an all-time high and oil's surge toward $100 made energy the week's standout sector. →
A hawkish set of FOMC minutes sent the 10-year briefly to a 24-year high before a strong Treasury auction and Trump's diplomatic overtures to Iran sent yields back down and equities higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting solid weekly gains on the doorstep of earnings season. →
A soft August PCE print and a sharply disappointing jobs report sent rate hike odds collapsing from 64% to 17%, rescuing equities from an otherwise bruising week shaped by geopolitical flare-ups and crumbling consumer sentiment. →
Treasuries hit 19-year highs as October rate hike odds climbed toward 70%, yet equities powered through the pressure, led by Meta's AI showcase and a broad technology rally. →
A four-day trading week packed four weeks of drama: WTI crossed $100 for the first time in years, August CPI kept the pressure on, and the S&P 500 fell for a fourth consecutive session before Friday's relief rally closed the week on a calmer note. →
