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Week 28 (6–10 July) was anything but quiet. Renewed tensions between the United States and Iran dominated the headlines and injected sharp intraweek swings across equities, bonds, oil and gold. Despite the turbulence, US equity markets managed to close the week in positive territory: the S&P 500 gained around 0.7% on the week and now sits +10.4% year-to-date. For options traders, the week offered a compelling combination of geopolitical risk spikes and ultimately orderly market behaviour — an environment that tests discipline and rewards structured positioning.
With the October rate hike all but taken off the table, markets split sharply along value and growth lines: the Russell 2000 surged 2%, energy hit record highs, and Brent crude closed above $116, while a $16 billion tax charge sent Meta tumbling and Communication Services led the week's losses. →
A hotter-than-expected September CPI reignited October rate-hike fears, while an AI revenue disappointment triggered an eight-session semiconductor losing streak — but the Dow powered to an all-time high and oil's surge toward $100 made energy the week's standout sector. →
A hawkish set of FOMC minutes sent the 10-year briefly to a 24-year high before a strong Treasury auction and Trump's diplomatic overtures to Iran sent yields back down and equities higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting solid weekly gains on the doorstep of earnings season. →
A soft August PCE print and a sharply disappointing jobs report sent rate hike odds collapsing from 64% to 17%, rescuing equities from an otherwise bruising week shaped by geopolitical flare-ups and crumbling consumer sentiment. →
Treasuries hit 19-year highs as October rate hike odds climbed toward 70%, yet equities powered through the pressure, led by Meta's AI showcase and a broad technology rally. →
