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Week 30 (20–24 July) began with cautious optimism but ended in another broad equity sell-off. Disappointing results from two of the market's most closely watched technology companies, combined with a renewed escalation in Middle East tensions and surging oil prices, weighed heavily on risk sentiment. The S&P 500 sold of and now sits +7.9% year-to-date — its second consecutive weekly decline as earnings season delivers a reality check on elevated valuations.
For the Rivativ model portfolios, the week told a striking story. Three of the four theta-positive portfolios absorbed the equity weakness in an orderly fashion, each outperforming the S&P 500 for the week. The fourth delivered its strongest consecutive run of the year. Combined weekly result: flat at 0.00%, against the S&P 500's -0.61%, an outperformance of 61 basis points in a difficult market environment.
With the October rate hike all but taken off the table, markets split sharply along value and growth lines: the Russell 2000 surged 2%, energy hit record highs, and Brent crude closed above $116, while a $16 billion tax charge sent Meta tumbling and Communication Services led the week's losses. →
A hotter-than-expected September CPI reignited October rate-hike fears, while an AI revenue disappointment triggered an eight-session semiconductor losing streak — but the Dow powered to an all-time high and oil's surge toward $100 made energy the week's standout sector. →
A hawkish set of FOMC minutes sent the 10-year briefly to a 24-year high before a strong Treasury auction and Trump's diplomatic overtures to Iran sent yields back down and equities higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting solid weekly gains on the doorstep of earnings season. →
A soft August PCE print and a sharply disappointing jobs report sent rate hike odds collapsing from 64% to 17%, rescuing equities from an otherwise bruising week shaped by geopolitical flare-ups and crumbling consumer sentiment. →
Treasuries hit 19-year highs as October rate hike odds climbed toward 70%, yet equities powered through the pressure, led by Meta's AI showcase and a broad technology rally. →
