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Week 31 (27–31 July) delivered everything at once: a Fed decision, a historic bond yield spike, a 15% single-day surge from Microsoft, Meta's earnings stumble, Amazon's recovery, and oil whipsawing on ceasefire hopes and fresh Middle East escalation. By Friday's close, the S&P 500 had managed a gain of 1.0% on the week and now stands +9.2% year-to-date — a resilient outcome given the noise. July as a whole was a more sobering month: the index finished -0.13% for the month, weighed down by the two consecutive weeks of losses in weeks 29 and 30.
For the Rivativ model portfolios, the week was a strong one. The combined portfolio gained +1.16%, outperforming the S&P 500's +1.05% weekly return. More meaningfully, the combined portfolio finished July +1.35% month-to-date against the index's -0.13% — an outperformance of nearly 1.5 percentage points over the full month, demonstrating the value of systematic volatility strategies when directional equity markets struggle.
A hotter-than-expected September CPI reignited October rate-hike fears, while an AI revenue disappointment triggered an eight-session semiconductor losing streak — but the Dow powered to an all-time high and oil's surge toward $100 made energy the week's standout sector. →
A hawkish set of FOMC minutes sent the 10-year briefly to a 24-year high before a strong Treasury auction and Trump's diplomatic overtures to Iran sent yields back down and equities higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting solid weekly gains on the doorstep of earnings season. →
A soft August PCE print and a sharply disappointing jobs report sent rate hike odds collapsing from 64% to 17%, rescuing equities from an otherwise bruising week shaped by geopolitical flare-ups and crumbling consumer sentiment. →
Treasuries hit 19-year highs as October rate hike odds climbed toward 70%, yet equities powered through the pressure, led by Meta's AI showcase and a broad technology rally. →
A four-day trading week packed four weeks of drama: WTI crossed $100 for the first time in years, August CPI kept the pressure on, and the S&P 500 fell for a fourth consecutive session before Friday's relief rally closed the week on a calmer note. →
